Sounds ridiculous after NE destroyed Detroit on Thanksgiving and Chicago ripped apart a quality Eagles’ squad. But there is something, frankly, about Jay Cutler’s mental make-up that makes me feel like a repeat quality performance from Cutler is very unlikely. For my Week 12 weekly picks, I noted that Cutler would have a huge game against the Eagles and finally be the primary reason the Bears would win – and that’s just what happened. It seemed to be a good time for them to play a good team that came to Chicago with tons of hype (almost distraction?) because of Vick. The Bears had just shut out the Dolphins (though a high school team probably could have done that – Tyler Thigpen played one of the worst games I’ve seen a QB play in a long time.) And last week, the Eagle offense was compromised by a tough Giants D and the Bears had the benefit of seeing what the Giants did on film – to slow Vick and co down.
The Bears aren’t bad – I’m not letting my anti-Bears feelings cloud my objectivity here. (In fact, you can go back and read a post from before the season started about why I thought the Bears would be good this year.) And specifically, the Bears’ D and special teams should scare every team they face – hard to argue otherwise. But I’m just not convinced re the Bear offense. And I’m just not sure that this coming week will go the way the extra-confident Bears think it will. The Lions aren’t bad and they’ve proven that over and over this year – despite a crappy record. They have some talented players and their D-Line can be a force. I can see them getting to Cutler and being disruptive, leading Cutler to mental distraction and eventually turnovers. (Detroit is #9 in sacks.) Unless Forte goes nuts, I think the Bears go to Detroit and lose a close one while San Fran comes to Lambeau and gets hammered by an angry Packer team – making it all square atop the NFC North once again.
UPDATE: There is at least a chance that Shaun Hill won’t be playing QB for the Lions this weekend. I think this hurts the Lions’ chances. Drew Stanton isn’t terrible and he’s had some real game experience, but there is a greater chance Shaun Hill can figure out the Bears’ D. If Hill doesn’t play, I’m not sure I’d stick to my prediction that the Bears go down this weekend.
packergeeks 
November 29, 2010 at 11:27 am |
Have that same feeling. Detroit gets some rest while Cutler hasn’t put together two good games since who knows when.
In Denver, he engineered two collapses by losing this type of game.
Go Pack!
November 29, 2010 at 11:58 am |
Strange. I don’t have that feeling.
Go Bears.
November 29, 2010 at 12:28 pm |
Hope you’re right. The tie-breakers are all leaning towards the Bears right now, and another division loss for them would be huge.
Tie breakers, in order:
1) Head-to-head: they currently own this, but Packers can balance it out if needed week 17 @ Lambeau
2) Division record: the Packers only have the one division loss, but the Bears don’t have any. The good news is the Bears have yet to play all their division road games.
3) Common games: the Bears’ win over the Dolphins put them a game up here, too. Packers can balance it with a win over the Giants week 16.
4) Conference record: Packers and Bears both have 3 losses to NFC teams.
Even if the Packers win out, it could go down to the strength of schedule/strength of victory tie breakers unless the Bears lose twice.
D∈T
November 29, 2010 at 12:34 pm |
On further review, if the Packers win out, they would have a conference record of 9-3. And since a week 17 win over the Bears would push their conference record to 8-4 (at best), the Packers will win the division if they win out.
November 29, 2010 at 3:59 pm |
I said at the beginning of the year the Lions would win a NFC north game and impact the division race. Let’s hope that happens this week and not next week!
Realistically, both the Bears and Packers are not going to win out. It might come down to who each team loses against and who wins that final game. Let’s not get overly pessimistic though and assume we need to win out in order to win the North. The Packers can afford another loss if they beat the Bears in week 17. Going 4-1 probably wins them the division and gets them the #2 seed. Losing two more games and going 10-6 probably gets you into a tie-breaker scenario for a wild card. So, two losses puts the season in jeopardy especially if it is two NFC losses. Regardless, this game at home against San Fran is a must win. I have my ticket and I can’t wait to be there!
November 29, 2010 at 7:46 pm |
It’s going to be tight, but I don’t understand all the rush of concern that it’s going to be tough.
It’s just as tough for the Bears as it is the Packers. And the Bears, who may look good at times, look terrible at times too. Would you put the franchise into the hands of Cutler or Rodgers. See Cutler may have a good game, or play well and not lose the game for the Bears, but other times, he’s the reason they lose. You can’t count on him any given week, and with their schedule, they have a tough challenge moving forward.
The Bears vs Packers to end the year may be the game that decides it all. But Chicago is going to have some trouble dealing with Detroit, Minnesota, never mind the Jets and the Pats. Packers already beat the Jets, so Bears will need to match.
Green Bay could miss playoffs, no doubt. Were in a race, and we can’t afford to lose another game. It’s not to say we’ll miss playoffs, but each loss from here on in makes things much more harder. It’s time to bring our best football, and hopefully, week 17, our destiny is in Rodger’s hands.
November 29, 2010 at 7:52 pm |
Do you guys really think, if the Pack makes the playoffs they can go all the way? Sorry, they are not there yet. Close, but no cigar…TT needs to get a running back. Not sure Grant is the answer. Just MHO.
November 29, 2010 at 8:50 pm |
Go back and look at the rushing numbers for the Packers’ 1996 Super Bowl season. Edgar Bennett and Dorsey Levens together rushed for 1465 yards.
So yeah, I think that the Pack can win the Super Bowl with Grant, along with a solid alternate. And maybe one of the silver linings for this year is that it’s getting Brandon Jackson enough playing time to develop into that solid alternate.
D∈T
November 30, 2010 at 2:10 pm
Dave – I see your point but I think it is overstated. You only count Bennett & Levens. Total rushing yardage that year was 1838. This year, our top two rushers (Jackson & Rodgers) have 759, which over 16 games would be 1104. This year total rushing yards are 1082, which over 16 games would be 1574. Either way, we are behind the 1996 pace by a not insignificant amount. Plus the 1996 team was scoring more points (456) and giving up fewer points (210). The comparable 2010 numbers for 16 games would be 391 and 241. My only point is that the 1996 team was so much better than this team that it is not a fair comparison.
I made this point (i.e. that the 1996 team was much better) just before the season started this year. http://wcoffensive.blogspot.com/2010/09/scary-preseason-predictions.html
November 30, 2010 at 3:12 pm
Just to clarify–since Grant is on IR, my statement “the Pack can win the Super Bowl with Grant” was meant to exclude this year.
I hate to say it, but I suspect when (and if) the Packers get into the playoffs this year, their exit will come at a loss, and largely because of the same reason they lost Sunday–a lack of a running game, and trouble moving the ball in short yardage situations.
D∈T
November 29, 2010 at 9:28 pm |
win out and win the division. I think one loss still gets the wildcard. 2 losses and we are outside looking in at 10-6. all the teams in front of us have easier schedules on paper. time to start rooting for weekly matchups. Going back to last year our last 6 losses have effectively been on the last play of the game or in overtime. Just a small bit of good luck and we would be dominating instead of hoping for a playoff spot.
November 30, 2010 at 1:37 am |
Bad news for 49ers: Frank Gore out for the season after hip injury during MNF.
Not sure how much this helps the Packers, though–Westbrook had a huge game in relief (136 yards on 23 carries).
D∈T
November 30, 2010 at 11:14 am |
I’m a Bears fan and I actually agree with you…scarey..hehe. Detoilet isn’t an easy out this year. They just can’t seem to win a game that they’ve set themselves up to win. But they’ve definately shown flashes….I mean they took the Packers down to the wire at Lambeau and I felt they deserved to win that game as did the Bear game in week 1 which they were definately robbed. Bears better have their heads into this one.
However, the Bears are a much improved team since the bye week as the coaches have finally found a winning formula. The defense, and most recently, the special teams have been very solid and the offense just needs to be good enough. But they are still a tough sell as a NFC favorite. If they played like this all year, I would be sold, but I’m closer to be after the Eagles game.
As the Packers go, I really like what TT has done drafting this team together…you have to give him credit there. However, it seems like he’s taking some things for granted like great QB play that the Packers have had for almost 20 years now. No quality backup with experience. I think they missed an opportunity to get a RB to replace Ryan Grant (but I don’t know what went on behind closed doors) and I don’t get why they tolerate average to poor special teams play over the last few years. Their crappy special teams have costed them a couple games this year. They are so primed for a championship run, but man they seem to overlook some details.
November 30, 2010 at 3:21 pm |
Dave – (not sure why I can’t put this as a further reply to the discussion we were having) – I admit that I glided right past your comment that the Packers can win the Super Bowl WITH GRANT. So the clarification is a good one, and sadly I think you are right that they are not likely to win it this year without Grant.
December 1, 2010 at 5:29 am |
That feeling folks seem to have about the Lions’ chances in this game should probably be dulled significantly, as Drew Stanton is, in all likelihood, going to start for Detroit at QB (Shaun Hill has a broken right index finger and may be done for the year soon). Anyone can plainly see that this is not good at all. Boy, are the Bears catching some breaks this year or what?