Archive for the ‘Weekly Spread Picks’ Category

Review of Week 16 picks (7 wins 9 losses)

December 28, 2007

Weekly review of my spread picks – bad week for me last week.

Lowlights:
NYJ @ TENN (-8.5) – If Pennington starts, it will be hard for me to root against him, but I will anyway because I think this could be a pounding by TENN. (nice call – a 4 point crappy game).

DEN @ SD (-8.5) – This is the kind of game Shanahan may be able to squeeze out. SD has already clinched but I can see some more second-guessing of Norv when he pulls LT early in the second half. (nice call again…blowout by SD)

Highlights:
WASH @ MN (-6.5) – After the Wash victory last week, I Salisburied and claimed they would roll over MN en route to the playoffs. I said this with serious, serious conviction. Now, I’m not sure they’ll cover. (Looks like the Salisbury in me was right this time).

Week 16 Spread Picks

December 20, 2007

PITT @ STL (+7.5) – Stephen Jackson and Polomalu will get their hair entangled on a play in the first half. There will be a very strange game delay as two of the NFL’s tough guys untangle their long flowing hair. Rams may upset here.

DAL @ CAR (+11.5) – Is Dallas crashing? I hope so. I would love for Owens to resume his toxic ways and for Romo’s excessive smiling to catch up with him.

KC @ DET (-4.5) – Who cares?

OAK @ JAX (-12.5) – When the TV flashed to Lane Kiffin last week, I swore, he looked like he was 17 years old. It’s an odd sideline really, with a child for a coach and a wooly mammoth for a D coordinator.

HOU @ INDY (-7.5) – I expect Houston to finish strong and be good next year knowing that Sherman won’t be there to disrupt progress anymore.

PHILLY @ NO (-2.5) – I hesitate here – Philly is playing well and they are just the annoying kind of team that would go in and foil someone’s playoff hopes. But I think NO will pull it out in large part because McNabb will play just poorly enough to resume calls for his ouster…

CLEVE @ CINCY (+2.5) – Interesting game, two former defensive minds coaching two offensive machines (though Cincy’s machine may be broken now).

NYG @ BUFF (+2.5) – Please, please Buff, knock the Giants down some more. I just want the meltdown to continue. I do think the Giants would be a desirable playoff opponent though for the Packers if they could make it that far.

GB @ CHI (+7.5) – I learned today on ESPN’s D-List (a Milwaukee radio show) from Brandon Lang that the Packers are 11-2-1 against the spread this year, one of the best spread records in NFL history. This will be an interesting one as Bears are going to want this one badly.

TB @ SF (+6.5) – For any of you who mysteriously remained tuned in to the MN @ SF game the other week (MN in a blowout), you got to see one of the best moments in the NFL this year. Sean Hill, a 6 year back-up QB got into a game for the first time, and threw his first NFL touchdown pass. He went nuts, the 7 people left in the stands went nuts and it was just really cool to see someone really wildly excited just to be playing in the NFL.

ATL @ ARI (-10.5) – How can a team with Boldin and Fitzergerald be 6-8? It just doesn’t make sense. You don’t need a RB, a defense, special teams or even an offensive line. You especially don’t even need a QB of merit – this team may simply dissolve when one or both of these guys leaves.

MIA @ NE (-21.5) – Right now, Miami is like a very low self-esteem teenager who was just given a compliment by a teacher in class for something which leads him to suddenly have this wind of confidence that makes him think he can probably do anything. So, he asks out the hot cheerleader who laughs at him and he’s back to square one. (Look for Miami to make a game of it off nothing but adrenaline in the first half, then NE to wake up – Gado will get lots of national attention after this game).

BALT @ SEA (-9.5) – In a way, it’s sort of too bad Billick’s time in Baltimore may be limited (despite what I regard as a fake recent statement of support by the team) because I’ve noticed lately, he is actually looking more and more like a raven, seriously, look at him and then look at the helmet.

NYJ @ TENN (-8.5) – If Pennington starts, it will be hard for me to root against him, but I will anyway because I think this could be a pounding by TENN.

WASH @ MN (-6.5) – After the Wash victory last week, I Salisburied and claimed they would roll over MN en route to the playoffs. I said this with serious, serious conviction. Now, I’m not sure they’ll cover.

DEN @ SD (-8.5) – This is the kind of game Shanahan may be able to squeeze out. SD has already clinched but I can see some more second-guessing of Norv when he pulls LT early in the second half.

Review of Week 15 Spread Picks (13wins 3 losses)

December 19, 2007

Last week was a nice week for the picks. Had a few errors but mostly a decent week. Here are the highlights and lowlights from this past week.

Highlights:
BALT @ MIA (+3.5) – Balt will have to find the courage to play this game well and I don’t think they will. My dream scenario of an 0-14 Miami team knocking off the 14-0 sweatshirt-wearing, cheating, swarthy Belichick and company may not get to happen. Miami wins. (Overtime thriller – Balt should have won though if Billick had any stones and/or the can’t-miss Stover makes an easy field goal).

JAX @ PITT (-3.5) – Jax is the better team I believe with the awakening of their offense. Jack “of the river” made a tough decision at the beginning of the year and I think it’s obvious now why he did it – Garrard looks tough. (Jax is scary and could dethrone Indy and/or take New England out. This is a good team.)

SEA @ CAR (+7.5) – Carolina has too much pride to get handled here – they may lose but they won’t get crushed (which is exactly what I said last week when they got crushed by Jax). (Surprised somewhat that Carolina won – though that’s a lie as I picked them in my straight up pool too. Holmgren has had some trouble in his coaching career with odd games like this – games his team should probably win).

Lowlights:
INDY @ OAK (+10.5) – Bad spread here – Indy by 30 unless they pull starters. I haven’t read anything about what Al Davis makes of another crappy season – that’s because I don’t really care. Isn’t it amazing Oakland was in the Super Bowl a few years ago??? (This was actually a good game – Indy was challenged throughout.)

WASH @ NYG (-5.5) – Sorry Skins fans, this week Todd Collins will play like Eli usually does. After the game, Collins will make up a drink naming it after himself and get really hammered and think it’s hilarious that his drink sounds like another drink. (Though Collins played poorly, the Skins didn’t – resilient team these Skins. Will likely beat the Vikings this week).

Week 15 Spread Picks

December 13, 2007

DEN @ HOU (-1.5) – Houston might go nuts here. Denver has been an inconsistent team to say the least. Ron Dayne might run wild – yes Ron Dayne, the greatest college running back of all-time.
CINCY @ SF (+8.5) – This is a game I’d rather not pick because I care so little about the outcome. I’ll take SF because they can’t burn me 2 weeks in a row and it’s kind of fun to watch Carson Palmer arguing with his receivers.
BALT @ MIA (+3.5) – Balt will have to find the courage to play this game well and I don’t think they will. My dream scenario of an 0-14 Miami team knocking off the 14-0 sweatshirt-wearing, cheating, swarthy Belichick and company may not get to happen. Miami wins.
TENN AT KC (+3.5) – At this point in the season, I’ll bet it is just plain annoying to listen to Herm Edwards trying to pump up the team. My guess is on Sunday, someone interrupts him and says, “coach, we absolutely suck, we have a one-man offense, a one-man defense, not sure we even play special teams and really, your horse voice and intensity are just tired Herm (nice name by the way)…just tired”.
NYJ @ NE (+24.5) – Boy would it be great if NYJ pulled the upset of all upsets, but it won’t happen with Clemens. Steve would accuse me of still being bitter that Pennington was benched (and I am), but Clemens is not the answer. The church-going side is fighting my writing this, but I wouldn’t mind seeing an important Patriots player get injured (“not career threatening or anything” my church-side adds).
GB @ STL (+9.5) – Tough one (though not tough when I always know I always pick the Packers). If Bulger plays, which it seems he might, this could be a more difficult game than Packer fans might think. Bulger still throws to Bruce, Holt, McMichael and has Jackson running behind him. This is an important game to show that the Pack is really dominant. However, I’d rather lose this game than either of the next two.
ATL @ TB (-10.5) – Petrino is a moron. What does their interim coach, former secondary coach Emmitt Thomas (strange promotion) say in the pre-game? He says, “Vick is gone, coach Petrino is gone, Harrington/Leftwich/Redman all are terrible, TB’s defense is impenetrable, Jon Gruden is kind of a dork, city of Tampa is really weird, but it isn’t far from some nice resorts where we can all have a few cocktails while looking over the ocean, let our kids play on the beach, set up a tee time…set up a tee time…set up a tee time…”
BUFF @ CLEVE (-5.5) – Finally, the buff and the cleve playing in the snow. This spread is too high, Buff is too tenacious to not keep this closer.
JAX @ PITT (-3.5) – Jax is the better team I believe with the awakening of their offense. Jack “of the river” made a tough decision at the beginning of the year and I think it’s obvious now why he did it – Garrard looks tough.
AZ @ NO (-3.5) – New Orleans is bound to go nuts in this one. AZ loss last week took the wind out of the sails. They’re finished. If NO loses though, fans are likely to blame it on Katrina.
SEA @ CAR (+7.5) – Carolina has too much pride to get handled here – they may lose but they won’t get crushed (which is exactly what I said last week when they got crushed by Jax).
INDY @ OAK (+10.5) – Bad spread here – Indy by 30 unless they pull starters. I haven’t read anything about what Al Davis makes of another crappy season – that’s because I don’t really care. Isn’t it amazing Oakland was in the Super Bowl a few years ago???
DET @ SD (-10.5) – Detroit is done after last week’s letdown. Psychologically, when a team sees their playoff hopes dashed in that kind of way, one little letdown in any subsequent game (Kitna fumble in the first quarter for example) and Detroit is done.
PHILLY @ DAL (-10.5) – Romo, still reveling in his newfound celebrity, was apparently spotted having a romantic dinner for two in Hollywood with Betty White – “we’re just friends, but we’ll see where it goes,” Romo said optimistically.
WASH @ NYG (-5.5) – Sorry Skins fans, this week Todd Collins will play like Eli usually does. After the game, Collins will make up a drink naming it after himself and get really hammered and think it’s hilarious that his drink sounds like another drink.
CHI @ MINN (-9.5) – Tarvaris has a 74% completion rate in his last 5 games. Pure talent, Steve, pure talent. The opposing quarterback Orton has a career 10-5 record, but a 59 quarterback rating. Chicago should cut all 3 of their Qbs in the off-season.


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