As the proud owner of Braylon Edwards in the Chesapeake Bay Fantasy Football Conference, I have been dismayed by his subpar performance to date. It’s been grim and I haven’t been able to figure out why. Now I know, thanks to Fantasyguru.com.
Braylon Edwards Cle) – He’s literally half the player he was last year. Chicago’s Brandon Lloyd is a much better player right now. Seriously.
Literally?
“The Dallas Cowboys are farther ahead than we are right now. And that’s the facts.” Mike McCarthy.
That gets it pretty much right. The Cowboys were better last night and are a better team. We’ll have more throughout the day — including Andy’s report from the game. But here are a few quick thoughts.
*Cullen Jenkins was a monster. If the Packers can get that from him every game, it’ll go a long way toward easing my mind about our defensive line.
*That said, the defensive line was pushed around a lot in the run game and the linebackers were absent for large stretches of the game.
*Aaron Rouse was a decent replacement for Atari Bigby.
*I like Brandon Chillar. He made several plays yesterday, particularly in coverage. (McGinn says he wasn’t as good against the run — I didn’t see it, but I wasn’t looking.) Chillar himself seems to think he did well — he was way too happy in his interview with Packers.com after the game. We lost.
*But I want Bigby back as soon as possible. His thumping hits set the tone for the defense and scare receivers.
*Contrary to Bob McGinn, who writes today that Aaron Rodgers had a “mistake-punctuated night,” I thought Rodgers played well, given the relentless pressure he faced. It’s true that Rodgers held the ball too long a couple of times, but he also avoided several sacked by scrambling and made a couple of truly exceptional throws — the one he threw jumping off of his right leg to Greg Jennings should make Rodgers’ career highlight reel. Amazing. Rodgers wasn’t flawless, but if you would have told me before the seasons that he’s play this well against the Cowboys — and that it would be his worst game of the season by far — I would have cracked a PBR to celebrate.
*Jordy Nelson alligator-armed a pass badly in the second-half yesterday. He made some nice catches, but the one he wussed out on was the most memorable.
*Ryan Grant looks like he’s getting back to form. He didn’t have any explosive plays, but he was pretty solid.
*Brandon Jackson looked good. I’ve been skeptical of Jackson pretty consistently since the Packers picked him in the second round last year. I don’t think he’s special and I think there were plenty of more talented players available when we took him. But he did seem to run strong yesterday and consistently found holes — big and small.
*The offensive line was mediocre, bordering on very bad. They opened some holes for the running backs, but were beaten badly in the passing game. The injury to Scott Wells has demonstrated just how valuable he is. It’s in part because of Wells and his play but also because it allows Spitz to play in his regular slot. What we can know is that all of the shuffling on the O-line is problematic and needs to end as soon as possible.
How can Mike Carey arbitrarily give the Cowboys more time on the play clock? That’s what he did with about 6 minutes left in the first quarter. The play clock was at 2 seconds and the Cowboys used another 10-plus to get the play off. Ridiculous.
might be the worst team to take the field in the history of the NFL. If they win a game this year it will be divine intervention.
Interesting article this morning in the Journal-Sentinel on the Packers’ receivers. The article focuses on Donald Driver and notes that opposing defenses still treat him as the top receiving threat. I think that’s crazy — did these defensive coordinators watch Greg Jennings last year? — but I’m not complaining. We are better off if teams try to cover Jennings with their second best corner and double-team Driver.
But the article triggered a thought I’ve been having for quite some time: The Packers have the best five-deep receiving corps in the NFL and I don’t think anyone is close. Here is Driver on that point: “If they get to the point where they stop me and Greg, I promise you James Jones and Ruvell Martin and Jordy Nelson will take care of business. I promise you that one. No one can stop us, we can only stop ourselves. And we know that.”
There’s a lot of chest-puffing in that comment, of course, but I think it’s true. We still don’t know how good Jordy Nelson will be but if the Ted Thompson track record is any indication, he could be quite good. But let’s assume for the sake of discussion that he ends up being just a guy — average or a little above average. Driver, although older, still has the waterbug-like elusiveness that has taken him from the 7th round to the Pro Bowl. Jennings is smooth, he runs crisp routes and he has obvious football speed beyond his 40 times. Although he’s not nearly as physical, I would group him with Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall in terms of what he can do after the catch. James Jones is solid, not spectacular, and after he got over the drops early last season went on to be one of the most productive rookie WRs last year. He always seems to be in the right place and he, too, has shown that he can elude defenders after the catch. Ruvell Martin is without question the best #4 WR in the league. All he does is make plays — and usually at crucial times in the game. He, like James Jones, would be a starting wide receiver on probably half of the current NFL rosters. (Off the top of my head: Cleveland (w/o Donte Stallworth), St. Louis, Seattle, Tennessee, Atlanta, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Oakland, Tampa.)
There are only two receiving corps that come close: Arizona and Indianapolis. Arizona has Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, of course, in my view the best two starting receivers in the league. I think Steve Breaston is actually going to be a very good #3. I like Jerheme Urban, formerly of the Seahawks, and we don’t yet know how good Early Doucet will be. In Indy, Reggie Wayne is solid and Anthony Gonzalez might be the best #3 receiver in the league. But Marvin Harrison is banged up and even the most devoted fantasy football freaks cannot name their #4 and #5 receivers. (Roy Hall and Pierre Garcon.)
Bottom line: I wouldn’t do a wholesale swap of receivers with any other NFL team.
Horrible week last week for predictions.
Highlights:
Oak
@ KC (-3.5) Interesting spread considering Oak got blown out last week and KC hung in there against the Pats. Of course the Brady injury changed that whole game. From a player’s perspective, this is probably what they’ll hear from Herm Edwards before the game: “This is the most important game, not just of the season, but of your lives. I know I said that last week, but still, it’s really important. It is a division rival, maybe the most important rivally in all of sports. blah, blah, blah…”. (By the way, not surprising that Croyle, who is 6′2″ and 28 pounds, got injured immediately). This may be a year of Oak surprising, then melting down, then surprising, then melting down.SD @ Den (+2.5) Interesting SD favored. They lost their first game, Shawn Merriman is out for the year, Denver crushed Oak in their first game and the game’s in Denver. This may be a key game for determining if Cutler is ready to play at a higher level this year. He apparently looked unstoppable Monday night. Funny, if they would have made the correct call, Cutler’s confidence may be much lower than it probably is right now – and of course, I would have gotten this game wrong!
Lowlights:
NYG @ ST L (+8.5) Crack pick alert. Right now 73% of Sportsline participants are picking the NYG to cover in this game. Last year’s SB champs vs last year’s and this year’s crap team. Crap team may not win but they’ll fight. If St. Louis gets handled in this game too, Linehan might get sacked and my preseason crack pick of St. Louis being 9-7 will require public undressing. St. Louis 9-7, I’m 2 more heinous games away from already proclaiming this the crack pick of the year.
Buff @ Jax (-5.5) After week 1, most would pick Buff here (in fact 61% are taking Buff at sportsline.com presently). I like the Buff and think they’ll be good, but Jax will win comfortably here as players like Jones-Drew will be ready for this game. I especially like “Jax will win comfortably”.
Let me open with the necessary it’s-only-been-two-games caveat. There.
On Sirius NFL Radio this afternoon, Gil Brandt, NFL analyst and former Dallas Cowboys GM, offered some interested statistics. Aaron Rodgers threw for more than 300 yards and 3 TDs on Sunday. It took Brett Favre 25 games to accomplish the former and 10 games to accomplish the latter. (That said, have the Lions ever been this bad?)
Second, John Hansen is the publisher of a fantasy football subscription site galled Fantasyguru.com. He is not only a smart fantasy analyst (the smartest, in my view) he is a keen talent evaluator and is generally quite knowledgeable about pro football. Here is his take on Rodgers:
“Packer QB Aaron Rodgers has been poised, comfortable, aware, and he’s made every kind of throw. You cannot ask for more of Rodgers; he looks like a guy who was ready for his opportunity. He does not have a gun, but the ball comes out with juice on intermediate throws, and he can air it out.”
I describe myself as a hopeful skeptic about Rodgers before the season. On the one hand, I thought there were reasons that he slid as far as he did in the draft and like virtually everyone else, I’m pessimistic about Jeff Tedford-coached quarterbacks succeeding in the NFL. Hence the skepticism. On the other hand, we have seen that Ted Thompson is a very strong talent evaluator (with one 325 pound asterisk in Justin Harrell, though he might be talented and injury-prone) and that Mike McCarthy is a hell of a quarterbacks coach. So in those moments I allowed myself to trust their judgment, I was optimistic. Hence the hope.
I’d have to say my skepticism is melting away. But not only has it been just two games, Rodgers played against an atrocious secondary in Detroit and a below-average one in Minnesota. I agree with the Hansen assessment and would add another strong Rodgers’ asset: he can run and actually looks very fast. But I’m eager to see it against a better defensive backfield.
I
I was basically joking with this post, but commenter Cindy V. writes to provide some actual, you know, information on the NFL and video. She writes:
I used to work for Fox Sports covering the Packers at Lambeau Field. And yes, the NFL does have a film crew at the games. Does the NFL get the network”s footage in addition to what they shoot themselves? I don’t know. I think, however, a team should send video because the network coverage has many angles of the play. A local TV camera crew could have still another angle on the fumble. You never know, so why not send the video?
I’m still guessing the NFL could just TIVO each of the games, but maybe the teams send in video of plays that never makes air. Interesting. Thanks for the clarification.
Two weeks into the 2008 NFL season and one thing stands out: Rookie running backs are having an immediate and profound impact on the game. There was much less pre-draft hype about this class of running backs — it was considered decent, not great by the draft gurus. But several teams thought otherwise and in picks that many draft experts quickly labeled as “reaches,” snatched up running backs relatively early. It’s early, but those picks are looking very smart. Already we have rookie RBs with 100-yard games and multiple touchdown games.
What explains the phenomenon? I’ve got a bunch of theories, but honestly I haven’t a clue which one is right. One thing that seems to be a factor is the ongoing transformation of the NFL — from a run-first league to a pass-first league . Many teams have shifted their offensive philosophies even as they pretend that they are run-first teams. (See Packers, Green Bay). In a sense, the league-wide shift has been happening for more than a decade, as more teams embraced the West Coast offense or some derivation thereof. But I think the success of the Patriots and the Packers last year — with spread offenses that match-up strong #3 and #4 receivers against weak defensive backs and limit how much defenses can double #1 receivers — has accelerated the change.
One consequence of these changes is fewer defensive formations in which defensive coordinators stack the box to prevent the run. So somewhat paradoxically running backs are finding more room to run as teams guard against being dominated by the pass.
That’s one theory anyway. A second explanation is simpler: the rookie running backs this year are just very, very good. I think that’s true, too. Darren McFadden put up 164 yards and a touchdown last weekend on 21 carries. Yes, it was against the CHEFS, but it was the kind of performance many draft experts predicted when they crowned him the next Adrian Peterson. I think he’s good, but I don’t think he’s AP or close. In fact, I think he very well might be the fourth or fifth rookie running back in this class — playing a role much closer to that played by Reggie Bush than Peterson.
For what it’s worth, here are my top rookie RBs, in order of likely success. We can look back at this in a year or two and you can make fun of me or write the executive committee and suggest that I be named head of pro personnel.
1. Matt Forte. Have you seen him? The guy is incredible and it’s very bad news for the Packers. He hits every hole — no matter how big — and explodes through it. And on those occasions where there are no holes (sadly rare these days), he creates one or uses his speed to get outside around the cluster.
2. Chris Johnson. He blew away NFL personnel types at the combine with his 4.24 40-yard dash. Others have run fast. The question was whether he could combine that kind of speed with the shiftiness and wiggle that is the difference between sprinters and running backs. Umm, he can. We saw glimpses of this in the preseason game against the Packers and we’ve seen much more of it
3. Felix Jones. It’s hard to evaluate him because he’s had relatively few carries from the line of scrimmage. But he has made those carries count — racking up yards against the Browns and even earning some tough yards against the Eagles when MB3 was struggling. But some of this is just a guess based on his unbelievable explosiveness on kick returns. I believe he had more than 250 all-purpose yards in Monday’s game, many of which came on his 98-yard kick return for a touchdown. He is incredibly elusive.
4. Jonathan Stewart. Solid. That’s the word to describe Stewart. Although he reportedly still has some pain in his surgically-repaired toe, he has already unseated DeAngelo Williams as Carolina’s top RB. This is the same DeAngelo Williams who was regarded a couple years ago as the next Barry Sanders. I don’t think Williams is Sanders, of course, but he’s not bad either. It says something that Stewart — considered a reach at #13 — has already won that job.
5. Darren McFadden. See above
6. Tim Hightower. He split carries with Edgerrin James last week against Miami. Edge is old and slow, so that fact alone doesn’t say much. But Hightower looks like he might have a little something
7. Kevin Smith. The only time the Lions have hit with an early-round draft pick in recent memory is when they took Calvin Johnson last year. Otherwise, it’s been grim. I think the same is true this year. Smith is nothing special — he’s an okay change-of-pace back would could merit 8-10 touches backing up someone good. Even the Lions seem to recognize this as they went out and signed Cedric Benson last night. But don’t expect their running game to improve — as I said, Smith could back up someone good.
The wild card here is Rashard Mendenhall, who has been used very sparingly by the Steelers. Willie Parker has been very effective and much to my surprise, has managed to keep Mendenhall on the bench. I thought Mendenhall was the best back in the draft and I was shocked that he fell into the mid-20s of the first round. As much of a man-crush as I have on Ryan Grant and as much as I agree with the Ted Thompson strategy of trading down in the draft to accumulate picks, I thought the Packers should have given serious consideration to moving up to get Mendenhall.
If these guys stay healthy, this could go down as one of the best running back classes in league history.
I came across this sentence in an NFL.com article about the horrendous call in the Denver-San Diego game on Sunday: “San Diego coach Norv Turner said he spoke with NFL officials Monday and that the Chargers sent in video of the plays in question.”
My question: Did they really send video to the NFL? Doesn’t the NFL have video of plays that take place on Sunday?
