2010 AFC East Predictions

AFC East

• NE Patriots, 11-5 - Why? Not sure. They have some older players, they shouldn’t be that good and Belichick continues to be weird. But they always have older players, they always end up being good anymore and Belichick’s weirdness is often smart weirdness (like going for 4th downs). Borrowing from soccer’s apparent claim on the word “mercurial”, Belichick’s mercurialness hasn’t faded a bit and I can’t help but think he will mercurially help the Patriots achieve success once again. In particular, the Brady/Moss/Welker trio will remain brutally difficult to defend and some may be surprised when the Laurence Maroney/Fred Taylor duo ends up being shockingly productive. Watch out for the Pats this year.
• Miami Dolphins, 9-7 – Most will be shocked that I’ve put the Jets in at least 3rd place in this division. But the Dolphins have been quietly solid since coach Tony Sporano has taken over. He’s a good coach who goes about things quietly, yet effectively. They have a young group but they also have players who can just plain get the job done. The signing of Brandon Marshall was huge. Huge. This guy is good and his presence will immediately help the passing game – especially the other WRs like Davone Bess, Brian Hartline and Greg Camarillo. And I don’t see why Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will slow down at all. Now that there is a greater threat in the passing game (especially with the emergence of Chad Henne over the last few games of last season – 4 300 yard games in a row), it stands to reason that an already potent running game could be even better. This team could be quite good.
• NY Jets, 8-8 – What? The Jets not winning the division? AW not buying the puffery surrounding Fat Ryan?  Does AW predict this because of the Revis controversy?  How could someone dare not believe in the Jets after their surprising ascent last year? Joey, have you ever been to a Turkish prison? A potential Revis holdout will hurt, yes, but it won’t ruin them. What will ruin them is a few setbacks. I’m envisioning a team having a seriously difficult time bouncing back from a few crucial setbacks. Rex Ryan is a coach who is so full of himself (and hot air), that I really doubt the “you should believe in yourself because I’m making you believe in yourself” approach will work this year. When he settles down some, it’s possible the Jets will settle down and be good again…in a few years. But not this year. The Jets won’t be bad and may contend for the playoffs because they do have talent. But they don’t have THAT much talent and I think people will be surprised by how good the Pats and the Dolphins are this year.
• Buffalo, 4-12 – Whenever there’s even the potential that someone like Brian Brohm, the slow-motion Brian Brohm, could start at QB, your team is hurting. Buff has some offensive talent (though both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch have recently been slowed by injuries), but overall, they mostly suck. Too bad. I like the Buff and their fans and root for the team, but I just don’t think they’ll be bringing much this year at all. And hiring Chan Gailey was questionable.

Packers should trade for Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn Lynch is a bit of a tool. He ran someone over with his SUV and then offered a pathetic denial (though the pedestrian he hit was apparently enormously drunk at the time). He’s also had several other foolish run-ins with the law in his short career. Concerning yes. Would he be a gamble? Yes. But many times, when a guy gets into trouble early in his career he eventually figures out what he’s throwing away – and this can lead to a pretty nice career. Marshawn Lynch was a strong Heisman candidate in college and a pretty good RB on a very crappy team for two years in Buffalo before his stupid off-the-field issues got him suspended for the beginning of 2009, opening the door for RB Fred Jackson. Jackson is now the man there mostly because he’s really good and because he has performed really well – not necessarily because Lynch totally sucks now. And, in the 2010 draft, Buffalo picked up RB CJ Spiller – a guy many figure will see the field plenty this year because he also has freakish skills (4.37 40 etc). Lynch is considered by many to be the #3 back in Buffalo at the moment.

Outside of depth at RB, Buffalo is a very bad team. Very bad. They have holes…everywhere. Given their desperation for…anyone, I think we could offer up a package for Lynch and they would jump at the chance to get rid of him. Give up Brandon Jackson plus a veteran or two like Donald Lee or AJ Hawk – or even swap dreads for dreads with Bigby. Or, the best option may be to give up a draft pick or something – maybe a 4th rounder. (I should add that whatever we do, we should also try to throw in Poppinga so I don’t feel compelled to write disparagingly about the guy anymore.)

Once in the fold in GB, I think Lynch would shape up attitude-wise because I think Rodgers already commands that kind of respect from the players around him. And, if I’m not mistaken, Rodgers and Lynch played together for 1 year at Cal – so there would be some familiarity already. Lynch could provide a nice style contrast from Grant. Lynch runs with some speed, he’s got some shake to him, he’s very powerful and he has decent hands for screens. My guess is that if something like this actually came about, Lynch would see this change as a fresh start and he’d help the Pack have a very effective 1-2 punch (maybe even a 1-2-3 punch considering the positive reviews so far for RB James Starks). He badly wants out of Buffalo and Buffalo badly wants to get at least something in return for the guy. I say let’s look into it.

I know these are highlights from 2008, but still, gives you a good sense for his ability.

Bo knows…living?

Interesting article here in USAToday on Bo Jackson and what he’s doing now. Seems to be a guy who has his life together pretty nicely. I like his mindset and approach to public life. He was a freakish athlete I wish fans could have enjoyed for longer.

John Lopez and his 26-27-60 theory on drafting QBs

Check out this interesting article by John Lopez from si.com. I think he came up with this 26-27-60 rule himself – impressively thought out I have to say. The general idea is that QBs who have a 26 or higher on the Wonderlic, 27 college starts or more and a completion percentage of at least 60%, will succeed in the NFL. His examples of successful QBs who have met those numbers are compelling: Manning, Matt Ryan, Brees, Romo, Schaub, Rivers. (Check out Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Wonderlic score of 48…wow.) At the same time his list of those who did not have all 3 of these qualifiers was also compelling: Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, David Carr, JaMarcus Russell (among others). A few notable exceptions are Brett Favre (22 on Wonderlic) and Donovan McNabb (14 on Wonderlic) – and he doesn’t mention him, but our own Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers I believe falls short in the games started category – he started 22 games in college as far as I can tell. I believe he had a 35 on the Wonderlic and his completion percentage was 63.8%. So, technically, like Favre and McNabb, Rodgers would actually belong in Lopez’s loser category.

Not a perfect theory, but still not bad.

Does being massively fat equate to NFL coaching success?

I’ve been thinking about this topic for a while now. The very basic thought that first sparked deeper thinking on this topic arose from this hypothetical scenario: if I were an NFL player and I was told to run extra wind sprints because I ran the wrong route or something, would I harbor any extra resentment if I were told to do this by a super fat coach? Answer: yes.

Well, I decided to study this notion a bit further. I have put together a statistical study so sophisticated that MIT just offered me an honorary PhD in math. Margin for error, zero.

NFL coaches in this study are each assigned to one of 4 weight categories: fit, normal, overweight and massively fat. The success rating is determined by using a 10 point scale. Added weight (pun intended) is given to those coaches who have led their teams deep into the playoffs (except for Brad Childress because he’s a tool).

Here is a rundown of present NFL coaches, their weight, and their success rating:

• Mike McCarthy – overweight; 7
• Brad Childress – normal; 6
• Jim Schwartz – fit; 3
• Lovie Smith – overweight; 6
• Mike Shanahan – fit; 7
• Andy Reid – massively fat; 8
• Tom Coughlin – normal; 8
• Wade Phillips – overweight; 7
• Sean Payton – fit; 9
• John Fox – overweight; 6
• Mike Smith – overweight; 8
• Raheem Morris – fit, 3
• Pete Carroll – fit; 7 (likely rating after a few NFL years – he will be good)
• Ken Whisenhunt – fit; 9
• Mike Singletary – fit; 6
• Steve Spagnuolo – fit; 3
• Tom Cable – overweight; 4
• Josh McDaniels – fit; 6
• Todd Haley – fit; 3
• Norv Turner – normal; 7
• Mike Tomlin – fit; 9
• John Harbaugh – fit; 8
• Marvin Lewis – normal; 6
• Eric Mangini – overweight; 5
• Bill Behlicheck – overweight, 9
• Tony Sparano – overweight, 6
• Rex Ryan – massively fat, 8
• Chan Gailey – overweight, 5
• Jim Caldwell – overweight, 8
• Jeff Fisher – normal, 7
• Jack Del Rio – normal, 6
• Gary Kubiak, normal 5

Results of this scientific, incredibly accurate study?

• 12 fit coaches – average skill level of 6.083
• 7 normal coaches – average skill level of 6.429
• 11 overweight coaches – average skill level of 6.4545
• 2 massively fat coaches – average skill level of 8

So, the best coaches overall are massively fat, followed by overweight, then normal and the worst coaches are fit. Perhaps the extra resentment some players may feel when yelled at by fatter coaches is somehow channeled into a focused anger that is then taken out on the field during games, leading to higher quality play.

One “expert” already taking Pack to go to the Super Bowl

Adam Schein of Fox Sports, who is not liked by Brother Steve and who seems no more an “expert” on NFL matters as you and me, has gone on record picking the Pack to go to the Super Bowl this year. I figured it was a matter of time before we started hearing this sort of thing, but I was a bit surprised to hear it this early on. (Go here to watch the video – story #6.)

Schein points to the emergence of Finley, Rodgers’ fantasticness, Grant’s solidness, year #2 of Capers’ system – all valid. But when he makes his argument, he seems to place a special emphasis on his interview with Mike McCarthy in which McCarthy said the offseason program has been as good this past year as any. I know that’s important, but I’m not sure it is the anchor reason the Pack may be a Super Bowl contender.

Anyway, for some reason, I am not ready to make such far-reaching prognostications just yet. While I think the team will be good, I feel like I need to survey other teams and the camps/preseason etc before making such predictions.

Impressive article by Houston RT Eric Winston

Check out this MMQB article written by Houston right tackle Eric Winston (for Peter King). Fantastic. I like the way this guy thinks. Not sure I agree with all of the ideas he expresses, but I like that he thinks a bit differently and is willing to put his thoughts out there.

One particular statement I happen to support for some strange reason, is his belief that the Bears will be good this year. While I haven’t quite put together my pre-pre-season picks, one thing I’m pretty sure of is that the Bears will be very good this year (and that the Vikings will be shaky).

Super Bowl at Lambeau someday?

Read here from ESPN – the NYG/NYJ will be hosting the 2014 Super Bowl in what sounds like a financially-motivated-one-time-exception for the NFL. Apparently there is not a plan to change the rule that the Super Bowl must be played either in a dome or in a location where temperatures remain above 50 degrees that time of year. 2014 is an exception will be an exception.

I bet Brother Steve is hoping that this will eventually lead to a rule change – Steve wrote just a couple years ago on this very topic both for Packergeeks here and for the Wall Street Journal (find the WSJ link within the Packergeeks post). I have to say, not sure they’d be a better party than a Super Bowl at Lambeau – especially if the Packers were playing in it!

Tony Romo – impressive

Tony Romo’s Cowboyness has always presented some problems for me. I’ve never liked the Cowboys, their image, what they think they stand for etc. But I’ve always liked Tony Romo. Sure, I feel this way mostly because he grew up in Wisconsin, but I kind of think he’s the kind of player I might have liked had he not grown up here. (The story about him changing a woman’s tire late at night after a difficult game makes him a difficult guy to dislike.)

Some people have been critical of his off-season pursuits in competitive golf. Cowboy fans like to talk about how he’s not dedicated enough to football because he devotes considerable time to golf in the off-season. Well, for those who don’t know yet, Tony Romo has just made it through the regional round of US Open qualifying for the the US Open golf tournament that will be held this June at Pebble Beach. He shot a 69 and had to win a playoff to make it through. Next step is sectional qualifying – a more difficult round to be sure, but if he makes it through, he’ll have qualified for one of the PGA Tour’s 4 major tournaments. If he can accomplish this, it would be a big freakin’ deal.

I disagree with those who claim that Romo’s golf pursuits interfere with his football career – they will probably help his football career and here’s why. Romo is an incredibly good QB I believe. He has good instincts, can make all the throws and he has a strong drive to win. His only concerning weakness in my estimation is his mental strength. He has struggled in big games and at big moments – this is well-documented. But if there is one sport that can strengthen one’s mental approach to sport in general, it’s golf. Especially, being successful in golf. Golf is one of the hardest sports to play well which helps explain why we see so many professional athletes from other sports drawn to it. Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, John Smoltz, Ryan Longwell, Jerry Rice – top level athletes from other sports can’t get enough. You’d think we’d read more about these guys being great at golf because of the mental strength they’ve built up from years of dominating other sports. But golf is unique in that very few pros from other sports are good enough to ever play golf professionally. Michael Jordan has essentially been given a good reputation as a quality golfer, but the truth is, he’s just not that good. Face to face against a golf pro, he’d get waxed – and he’d get crushed by Romo too.

I think this adventure will prove to be good for Romo and I’d bet he ends up having a great year on the football field too. Good luck Tony.

Funny quote from Matt Hasselbeck’s 8 year old daughter…

Read below from Peter King’s MMQB. Also, check out this photo. The guy does look like the way Jesus Christ is often depicted. But I love Hasselbeck’s daughter’s quote:

Charlie Whitehurst is getting used to a new life in Seattle, a life with a little more pressure than he had as the number three quarterback in San Diego. There will be expectations now — that he can push Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job, and even if he loses that competition, that he’ll be ready to play at a moment’s notice for the Seahawks this year. Until now, the thickly brown-bearded, long-haired Whitehurst has been known for one thing as a Charger: his resemblance to Jesus Christ, at least to how Christ looks in the photos and images we’ve become used to seeing.

Whitehurst has formed a nice little bond with Hasselbeck. Let me say that if you can’t form a good bond with Hasselbeck, you are either a Martian or speak only Swahili. On one of his first nights in Seattle, Whitehurst got an invitation to dinner with the Hasselbeck family — Matt, his wife and three kids. The kids figured out something was different at the meal because they didn’t open it with grace, as they usually do.

“Daddy,” 8-year-old Annabelle said, acting like she’d just figured out one of the great mysteries of life, “we didn’t have to say grace because we ate with Jesus.”

“I’m thinking he looks more like Barry Gibb,” Matt Hasselbeck said.

Now we got the interesting-looking-quarterback angle out of the way. Now the question is: Can he play?