Sudden Steve Slaton hunch (zero basis for this hunch)

I think the Packers will draft Steve Slaton somewhere. I don’t have any evidence for this. I find it interesting that the draft “experts”, for whatever reason, don’t think he’s worth much. I reviewed some of his profile and can’t quite understand why he’s essentially become villified by the draft community. This is a guy who a few years ago finished 4th in Heisman voting.

Here is my very basic thought on the guy. He’d be worth probably a 3rd rounder (though I wouldn’t even mind if we picked him up with one of the 2nd round picks). Here’s why. Think about the last 2-3 years of watching college football. Every single Sat, in highlight shows, you would hear first that West Virginia probably won, then you’d hear Pat White’s name and Steve Slaton’s name and then they’d show some ridiculous run featuring some ridiculous athleticism. He’s played for a very successful program and his supposedly “down” junior year still had him gaining 1400+ yards on the ground with 18 TDs. One article here, indicates that part of the reason his stats may have declined is simply the presence of Pat White who took plays and carries from Slaton. During his monster season a few years ago, Slaton averaged nearly 7 yards per carry. Last year, it was down to 5, which is still really really good. I would argue he probably hasn’t lost a whole lot of his ability, he was just forced to share the workload a bit more when Pat White came onto the scene.

The main reason I believe I have this hunch is that he seems to be one of those players who very simply just plays football effectively and seems to have a good attitude - both characteristics TT and MM look for. I can’t pretend to know anything more about his character, but I would love to pick up a high quality 3rd down back with game-breaking speed and jukability, as it were (the spell check didn’t underline that - perhaps jukability is actually a word?). Plus, he would add some excitment to our team instantly (and possibly even do some kick returning).

Please help spread the rumor that the Packers are going to pick him until it spreads to TT and MM and they realize “wow, how could we not have thought of taking him - let’s take him”. That’s my delusional goal in writing this post.

 

Still disagree - tight end can be solid pick

Bedard essentially points to one case of a tight end (who was really hyped) not working out completely (though I think Davis may still be a good player in the NFL). I also disagree with Bedard implying that tight end blocking is somehow an unimportant part of the offense. Blocking is a very important of a tight end’s contribution to the offense - and if the TE happens to have good receiving hands, then that’s a huge bonus. Imagine if Martelles Bennett or Dustin Keller were the next Jay Novacek (who was the real MVP during the 90s for the Cowboys.)

Not only do I think a tight end can be a valuable (1st round worthy) pick to make, but I think in the Packers case, it could be an especially smart one. I’ve begun to think McCarthy may be somewhat of an offensive genius. There is a lot going on up in that rather large melon offensively. I think pairing Donald Lee with a quality TE partner could have an especially huge impact on the overall offensive production because it would enable McCarthy to open things up even more for Rodgers. Think of all the combinations we could have with 2 quality receiving TEs and the 5 receivers we already have. Endless. Imagine a 2nd and goal from the 3 with the mobile Rodgers at QB, TE Martellus Bennett lined up in the backfield in front of our drafted RB Steve Slaton, with Donald Lee on the line, Jennings, Driver, and Jones wide. No defense could account for the all of the play options that would be possible.

Response to 2008 Packers Draft

Check Brother Steve’s pre-draft analysis below. Very well done and I have to say, despite disagreeing somewhat on what the Packers’ needs are, I think you’re pretty much dead on assessing these players.

I agree very much on Rashard Mendenhall. See this February post saying the same. I know he’s become a reach at this point which is a shame because he would have been a steal. I’m confident he’ll become a fairly dominant runner in the NFL. I also agree on Keith Rivers, Harvey, Otah, Mayo and Felix Jones. I would be excited to have any of these players on our roster. Brother Steve made a good point about possibly picking up another back later in the draft. I think Steve Slaton could be a better back than is presently projected. He is a game-changer and I think he’ll be pumped to try to prove people wrong (because he’s been chewed up in pre-draft speculation).

I do still disagree on tight ends. Sure, there have been some later round picks who have succeeded at tight end (go Wisconsin, Owen Daniels), but that’s true of QBs, RBs, and every position (see Donald Driver). I guess I just believe that with the right guy, the right fit, there’s a better chance that a quality tight end can be had toward the front of the draft and that he’d be more likely to have an impact on our offense and game-planning. I think it’s worth a first round pick.

But perhaps the most interesting part of Steve’s pre-draft analysis was this line referring to Philip Merling:  “He sounds like a character from Masterpiece Theater.”

Would it be absurd for me to conclude from this reference that Brother Steve does indeed watch Masterpiece theater, the very same program that a recent Jane Austen series was played on? 

Wrong Bedard, Packers do have needs to fill

I disagree with Greg Bedard’s claim in this article that the Packers might look to trade up for an impact player because: “With one of the youngest teams in the league coming off a berth in the NFC Championship Game, the Packers have depth and few, if any, needs to fill”. We do have needs. Despite getting close to the Super Bowl last year, to get to the Super Bowl this year (and in years to come) and win it, there are needs to fill. I recognize that a team can fill needs in the draft, via trades and free agency. But heading into the draft this weekend - this is how I see our present team needs.

Quarterback: C-. Right now we have Rodgers and some bodies (though I admit to knowing zero about Babb and Bell - not interested in keeping Nall). Rodgers definitely could be good and may be able to survive a whole season - that is definitely possible. But Rodgers is injury prone and we have nobody to help when he goes down. This is a need position and my hope would be that we could draft a really solid player and pick up a savvy veteran (Chad Pennington?) to help bring Rodgers along.

Running Back: B-. Grant appears to be a quality back and likely will be solid again this year. And if this were years ago, we’d be fine here as so many teams just had a feature back who did most of the work. Nowadays though, the Pack should have a reliable counter-punch for opposing defenses to deal with. I’d say only one player between Wynn, Morency, Jackson and Herron should make the team (probably Wynn or Jackson) and the Packers should draft or pick up another player (or maybe give Corey White a shot - he’s done nothing but play well when asked). We could also take a look at another FB. FB/RB are need positions.

Tight End: C. This could change to a B- if Tory Humphrey gets back out there and plays well. Krause is not impressive so far. Donald Lee is a good tight end, but he needs a partner out there. This could be a position to fill in the draft (and there are apparently some good options in Keller and Fred Davis).

Wide Receivers: B+/A-. This is a really good group. Driver is aging but still effective, Jennings is really breaking out, I’m pretty sure Jones is ready for a break-out year, Koren Robinson will hopefully be in a bit better shape to play and Ruvell Martin may be the best #5 receiver in the NFL. However, ever since about 1995, I’ve been hoping the Pack would pick up another huge, bruising-type receiver who can bench press the bus (still can’t let go of Sterling Sharpe retiring). I wouldn’t give up much here to add a receiver - not really a need position, but adding a quality option could never hurt. (I thought briefly about writing a post pushing for the Pack to pick-up Boldin because he’s really really good, but I know it would cost too much. But just think of a 4 receiver set of Boldin, Driver, Jennings and Jones. That would be an unstoppable passing game).

Offensive Line: C+. I thought the Packers should have looked harder at Matt Burke, perhaps sign him and then move Wells to guard. There are some new faces at guard the team will be looking at (Ryan Keenan, Cameron Stephenson, also Babre) and this may also be a position to fill in the draft. Colledge and Spitz probably have camp and then 4-6 more games to prove they can play. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of them dropped if their collective mediocrity continues. The Packers’ present thoughts on Coston may be the deciding factor in how aggressively we pursue a guard in the draft. Tackle is also a position the team might need to start thinking about more. Tauscher is still awfully good and I think has several more quality years left. But Clifton is someone in whom I am losing confidence. He got some attention last year (even some arguments for the Pro Bowl), but I think he’s on the decline and we need to start thinking about a replacement. I wouldn’t be surprised to see TT go for a quality guard or tackle with our first 3 picks.

Defensive Line - B. I may be in the minority here giving this high of a grade, but I think we’re in pretty good shape along the line. Losing Williams does hurt, but only if Jolly can’t come back to full strength. I think Jolly’s injury was a quiet reason the Packers defense as a whole declined at the end of last year. He is an effective player who can change a game even if he isn’t playing well simply because he makes it really hard for the QB to see with those Paul Pressey-like arms. I feel better about our interior D-Line (Pickett, Jolly, Harrell, Cole, Muir) than I do about the ends. Really Kampman is the only good one. Jenkins was OK last year but Cletidused a bit (or, faltering after getting a big contract - “to Cletidus” is the infinitive verb form). He may actually be more effective platooning at DT. KGB should be cut, Hunter is just too small (though I like his motor), and despite my pulling for him, Montgomery seems quite average. I wouldn’t be surprised to see TT pick up a good DE in the draft. (Or maybe surprise us all and trade a second rounder and 5th rounder or something for Jason Taylor??)

Linebackers: B-. Barnett played very well last year. I finally feel comfortable with him in the middle (prior to last year I thought he was overrated). Hawk is solid, but that’s it. For now, I’m OK with him on the weak-side but I may raise a stink next year if he has a mediocre-poor year this year. He is a #5 overall pick - Urlacher was a #9 overall pick. I expect major contributions from the guy and I don’t buy the “scheme” excuse used to explain Hawk and Poppinga not making big plays. I’m excited that we picked up Chillar because I think we need to replace Poppinga, but I’m not sure Chillar is the guy. I’m not sure why Desmond Bishop isn’t getting more of a chance to dethrone Poppinga from his OLB spot. It is possible we may pick up an OLB in this draft.

Secondary - C+. While there is lots of chatter out there about the Packers needing to draft a CB, I would not put it as our #1 need (though it is a need). Tramon Williams showed flashes of major talent last year, as did Will Blackmon. Our 2 corners, though aging, still play with enough veteran savvy to be above average corners. Bigby created a reputation for himself with some great hits, and if he can develop a better sense in coverage, he could become a monster back there. Collins, early on one of my favorite players, has been a disappointment. He does nicely in general in containing big plays (mostly because of his speed), but frankly, I’m not sure he’s smart enough to be the leader of the secondary. Rouse showed promise and I’m comforted that he could step in should Collins or Bigby get injured or play like crap. Jarrett Bush should be cut and Tyrone Culver should get a shot at playing CB.  I could see TT looking for a CB or safety in later rounds. (As I said before, the only secondary guy I’d be inclined to draft early on (perhaps 2nd round if he’s still there) would be Tom Zbibowksi from Notre Dame.

Special Teams: B. We weren’t too bad on special teams this past year. I think it is part of the reason the team played well overall. Looks like Jon Ryan will have competition by Ryan Dougherty, but outside of that, we should be OK. We may miss the leadership though of Rob Davis (though he’ll be in the locker room still as director of player development). Importantly, we’ve re-signed Tracy White who is simply a star on special teams.

Here is my order of draft need priority:

1. Tight End
2. Offensive guard
3. Quarterback
4. Corner
5. Running back (possibly fullback)
6. Outside linebacker
7. Defensive end
8. Safety
9. Offensive tackle

Culpepper thoughts…

I’m not a huge fan of Culpepper and agree - TT would have to make sure it is written into Culpepper’s contract that the arm roll thing is not allowed on the team. He fizzled in Oakland and was mediocre to poor in Miami before that. And, how would it look to sign a washed up veteran on the same day the Vikes pick up Jared Allen (granted they did trade away their future at the same time)?!?!

In the interest of full disclosure, however, I must admit that prior to last year, I did think that picking up Culpepper would be a good idea. While again, I’m not so sure about the move now, 1-poor-achieving -year removed from Oakland, here’s are some reasons why it may not be a horrible decision: 1) if he is put into an offense with playmakers, he’s proven he can do a sufficient job - and the Pack has playmakers; 2) he’s huge and really difficult to bring down; 3) he’s had experience in the NFC North; 4) while some of those passes were crappy and Moss made great plays, some of them were long bombs thrown well leading to some devastating Packer losses; 4) he always seemed to use tight end options effectively; and 5) Favre probably would have struggled at Oakland last year.

Again, I’m not a big fan of his, but I don’t think it would hurt to bring him in and see first-hand if he can still compete. I’d much rather have him than some inexperienced guy.

Jared Allen to Vikings

The Vikes took the plunge yesterday - wow. Read here about how the Vikes gave away their #17, #73 and #82 picks in the draft for Allen. My gut reaction here is that they gave up too much. I had written the other day about how I thought the Packers should make a play for Allen, giving up perhaps our 1st round pick and a third round pick. It would have been a bit easier for us to do that considering we don’t pick until #30, but judging from this trade, the Chiefs wouldn’t have gone for that. Again, I think Allen is a great player and his addition to the Vikes scares me as a Packer fan. But giving up 3 of the 1st 82 picks in the draft is a pretty steep price (not to mention the giant contract).

Allen will join a fairly talented group on the Viking’s D-Line (the Williams duo, Ray Edwards, Erasmus “always hurt” James). This acquisition will make their defense quite a bit scarier. I suppose their thinking was that they already stuff the run well with the Williams duo, why not take the pass away too with one of best pass rushers in the NFL. This trade makes me suddenly fear the Vikes a bit more. Their defense has become more than legit now that they have at least 4-5 players who could easily be pro-bowl players (both Williams, Allen, EJ Henderson, and the toughest short guy in the NFL, Antione Winfield). While brother Steve probably still rests easy because the offense starts with Tarvaris, I happen to think the potential he has coupled with the clear talent that Peterson, Taylor and Rice have, makes them a team to watch. I still think the Packers are better overall, but if the Vikes added a quality tight end somehow, they could really contend for the division title.

Let’s get it started - some Packer draft thoughts

Read here to learn about the Packers possible interest in a particular TE and LB. I find both of these realistic possibilities. Purdue’s TE Keller seems to make sense and there’s something about his name that makes me believe he will be a big-time NFL contributor. Even though he seems to have moved up draft boards, one guy I liked watching was Keith Rivers, LB from USC. He will be quality in the NFL. I’ll say it again, one player I think the Packers ought to consider trading up in the draft for (or just trading for outright) is Rashard Mendenhall. I think he is destined to be the Adrian Peterson of this draft. While I’m pleased with Grant, once again, sometimes to get to the highest level, going from very solid to great at any position can be the difference maker.

However, there is one player I really want to see in a Packer uniform someday: Notre Dame’s Tom Zbikowski. He is rated as the #2 SS available, so he may not be around for the Packers at #30, but he would be an exciting player to pick up. He apparently ran a 4.47 40, he’s an amateur boxer in his spare time (and quite successful at it) and he was a 3rd team All-American SS AND punt returner. While it would be positively terrifying to be an offense and have to face hitters like Zbikowski and Bigby at the same time, it would be especially nice to have a kamikaze-like punt returner who no doubt doesn’t give a crap about his body. It seems that the trend in the NFL over the last 10 years or so is toward jukey, fast, elusive returners. Some of these types (Deion, Hester, Hall) have proven to be very good at their trade. But many others end up being average or get injured easily. I think their main problem collectively is that they give a crap about their bodies. I remember part of why I thought DeMond Parker was going to be tremendous was because he was so quick and agile - impossible to zero in on for a tackle. But instead of being a great return guy, he was really inadequate mostly because he said at one point that punt returning is “crazy” - referring to how dangerous it is.

I must admit, it’s rather difficult to write speculative pieces about the Packers draft when TT is at the helm. With him, there seems to be such a great range of possibilities. He could go with a really solid guy some are projecting the Packers to take (like Keller) or he could go with an intramural flag football player like John Johnny Boubla from Northeastern Alabama Polytechnic State College. In a way, I’m comforted by this though - that he’s willing to just take the best player. It’s a very no-nonsense approach. (Though I’m only giving Harrell this year to prove that TT’s first round pick last year was NOT a nonsensical pick).

Ted Thompson voted Executive of the Year

Interesting that the last few posts on Packergeeks have generated some debate over whether or not TT is even good at his trade. Read here about how Sporting News awarded him Executive of the Year, beating out the GM for the Giants.

I feel compelled at this moment to render my own judgment on TT. I’ve had a waffling opinion of TT from the start. When he came in and fired Sherman, I thought he was a quality GM and someone who had the stones needed for team improvement. Then, he looked past Jim Bates to hire Mike McCarthy (Mc-Who?) and I suddenly began to wonder. In the beginning of the MM era, I thought TT had hired McCarthy more as a puppet so that TT could rule the whole organization from his cold, lofty perch. McCarthy of course got off to a 4-8 start and I started thinking TT didn’t know what he was doing with coaches and/or player personnel. But one thing didn’t make sense: why would he take a flier on an unproven coach when there was so much at stake for TT himself for the coach to succeed?

When McCarthy and the Pack turned it around at the end of 2006, I once again began to question my own criticism of TT. After the surprising 2007 campaign, I suddenly started telling people, “yeah, I’ve always thought building through the draft was smart - TT and I think alike” even though I’ve always had more of a balanced building philosophy of draft and free agency . I began lying as I rode the TT wave. Then, Favre retired and questions swirled around about whether or not TT and MM did enough to persuade him to come back. And something still tells me that while that may not have factored much into his ultimate decision, somehow I believe it’s true, TT in particular didn’t make much of an effort.

Now, I look at what he’s done (or hasn’t done) in free agency and I’m starting to wonder again. Sure, results are on his side for his draft-first philosophy dating back to his Seattle days - but I am still left feeling like he could be doing just a bit more in free agency. I agree with brother Steve that this year’s free agent crop is weak, but I still think we should have picked up Warrick Dunn or Billy Volek. I’m pleased with the Chillar pick-up (a told-you-so goes out to those who criticized my frequent criticism of Poppinga), but there were a couple other options it seems he didn’t look into much. And, bringing in Frerotte? That guy is horrible!

In the end, the bottom line is, it is difficult to argue with results. I’d contend so far that TT had one iffy year in 2005 (most of that was Sherman/Rossley’s fault), one OK year in 2006 and one great year in 2007. Overall, it has been a positive progression. I think this year will be a real test though. How good is the defense that TT himself has mostly put together? How many weapons does this offense really have? Will Aaron Rodgers prove he belongs at least among the very solid QBs of the NFL? Will Mike McCarthy continue his creative ways and bring the Packers back to the playoffs? Will TT make 2 or 3 crafty additions to the team through the draft or free agency before this season starts who will make significant contributions?

If I had to make a more conclusive statement re TT though, I would have to say that so far, I think he’s done a good job.

Gus Frerotte - seriously?

Wow, just as I was beginning to think TT may know what he’s doing, he goes out and asks Frerotte to visit. Check out Bedard’s article this morning.

I know the Packers need to think about picking up someone, but this is ridiculous. I believe it was our frequent commenter Raymidge who pointed out that for the first time in a long time, Packer fans will actually have to accept that we now must enter the Horrendous Veteran QB sweepstakes (Brock Berlin, Todd Bouman, AJ Feeley, Griese, Brad Johnson, Jamie Martin). Maybe I’m just in denial re Favre still and maybe Frerotte may not be the worst option out there. Considered that - no, the truth is Frerotte has to be about the worst option out there.

Last year, Frerotte threw 7TDs and 12INTs for a 58.3 QB rating. His career stats are equally unimpressive: 102 TDs 91 INTs for a lifetime 74.3 rating. He is a 15 year veteran who has virtually no upside. Having Quinn Gray as a back-up would be considerably more appealing to me as at least Gray has “potential” to do some things well. Even Kerry Collins, who despite plenty of bad decision making, still has a decent arm.

Also, remember, Frerotte once got a concussion as a Redskin by banging his head against the wall after a game.

Favre and the Onion - 2 great WI phenomena

Thanks to Greg Bedard at jsonline for pointing out this funny Onion article on Favre. Perhaps most interesting is that even the hilarious but often brazen writers at the Onion waited several weeks after Favre’s retirement to post this article. I guess even unabashed hilarity needed time to absorb the pain of Favre’s departure.

Also, check out the infograph here.