Kaepernick deal start of 49ers decline?

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Something tells me that Kaepernick getting this new contract could be the start of the team’s decline. I started this post going into some detail about why this would happen but frankly it got unnecessarily verbose and I decided there is no need to ramble on here. Call it a hunch or whatever, I think this huge contract for Kaepernick will not end up being a great investment for the 49ers. For some reason I just don’t think he’s the kind of player who will end up playing up to a contract like this. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a good QB, but I just don’t think this kind of money will align well with him for some reason.

And coupled with stories I’ve read about possible locker room issues and conflicts between Harbaugh and the front office, I’ll go out on a limb now and predict that they miss the playoffs this year.

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5 Responses to “Kaepernick deal start of 49ers decline?”

  1. joshywoshybigfatposhy Says:

    when i heard about the deal i thought exactly the same thing, except for different reasons. i can’t wait for the seahawks to sign russell wilson to a big deal (unless i missed that and it happened already).

    the fact that those two teams have been so good the last couple years has a TON to do with the rookie payscale and the fact that they have been lucky enough to NOT have a huge % of their money tied up in their starting qbs’ contracts. this allows them to stack the rest of their roster with little to no concern about the cap, at least in comparison to teams with veteran elite qbs who (completely deservedly) make quite a few dollars.

    so just because of the $ factor alone, as soon as sf and sea paid their qbs, i thought it would be the beginning of the end – not necessarily the end of being damn good teams – but the end of essentially having an unfair advantage, which has undoubtedly made a difference.

    add some locker room issues, some coach issues, and i’d say 2 or 3 years from now, i wouldn’t be surprised if both teams are only slightly-above-average teams. not saying it’s inevitable, but certainly more likely than when they only had to pay their star qb a couple mil/yr.

  2. joshywoshybigfatposhy Says:

    i suppose it isn’t an ‘unfair’ advantage – they drafted qbs that worked – some skill/luck involved there, but not unfair.

  3. Dave In Tucson Says:

    A 6 year deal with $61 million guaranteed seems like an awful lot for a guy who still hasn’t made his 24th regular season start.

    He has played pretty well so far (for the most part), but it will be interesting to see how Kaepernick does when the 49ers defense falters.

  4. Dave K Says:

    Their cap situation changes little for this current NFL year for the 49ers. He gets minimum base salary and a big chunk in a signing bonus prorated through the next 7 seasons. Next year though his cap number jumps north of $17 and climbs from there. That certainly effects the rest of the roster just like every other teams with a franchise QB in their 2nd or 3rd contract.

    It seems, the way the NFL CBA is structured, the best opportunity to win a championship is with a young franchise QB during the end of his first contract. It certainly gets more difficult when the franchise QB gets his second contract given the cap implications. And, it sets the organization back years if you give the ‘franchise QB” a second contract and he flops or gets hurt.

    My hunch on Kaepernick is that he has peaked. His physical running ability only erodes each year in the NFL and I am just not sold on him as a guy who gets appreciably better at reading defenses, being a pocket passer, or running a more typical NFL offense. And, the team will have less ability to keep that defense in tact which certainly helps Kaepernick with field position and playing downhill on teams. UNLESS, they continue to draft defensive studs (Jimmie Ward and Chris Borland ??) to replace the guys that leave in free agency that 49er offense will need to do more over time to stay even.

  5. Frank G Says:

    I completely agree with your prediction. The 49ers are in the toughest division in the league and with rumors of dissension, combined with 2 agonizing exits from the playoffs, I think they’re going to miss the postseason.

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